A new report from BloombergNEF estimates that 100 percent electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will be sold more than thermals by 2037.
It’s a fact that electrified cars will become increasingly important in the coming years. The announcements of new models coupled with the ambitions of the countries or communities abound, in particular on Clean Automobile. Here a report edited by BloombergNEF projects how these models will evolve over the next two decades.
57% of sales in 2040
By 2040, 60% of new cars will be electric
It’s only 2% today but, according to a study, by 2040 dealers will live off sales of cars without exhaust fumes. Better, 31% of the world’s car fleet will already be electrified.
And you, what will your next car be like? Without wishing to influence you, between the aid that the government is putting in place and the innovations made in the clean vehicle sector, everything pushes us to opt for electric or hybrids. Indeed, this is what predicts an analysis carried out by Bloomberg on the future of the sector: by 2040, 58% of the cars sold in the world will be electric. Normal since from 2022 the manufacturers will offer you … 500 different models.
Today, dealers sell 1.7 million a year; in five years, it will be 8.5, so 10% of sales according to the study. The explosion will take place at the turn of the decade: by 2030, these sales will reach 26 million vehicles to reach 54 million just ten years later.
At this rate, there will be 116 million on the roads of the world including hybrids, so 31% of the world fleet.
In terms of engines, the plug-in hybrid will remain in the minority, with 5% of sales at best. The 100% electric will be the majority in 2040 ahead of diesel, gasoline, and hybrid vehicles at the end they will not be any more of internal combustion engine no need for gas the will cost you ahead of every station. Combined auto electric and plug-in hybrids will overtake thermals by 2037, BNEF analysts estimate.
In 20 years, this changeover would convert 30% of the global vehicle fleet to an electric model, against 0.5% in 2018, or 508 million out of 1.68 billion. However, this will be done with strong regional disparities.
China, representing half of the sales of rechargeable batteries, would reach 15% battery sales by 2023. Europe will catch up, with 50% expected in 2030, and 65% in 2040. The United States will lag behind with 50% only in 2040 while India will approach 30% on the same horizon
Realistically, Bloomberg also takes into account a drop in sales – yet rising steadily despite COVID-19 – by the end of 2020, as a result of oil movements and government aid to equip themselves. But for Colin McKerracher, who signs this study, the reign of combustion cars has gone into decline.
How to explain this powered projection? Simple, the selling price of electrics is already tending to approach gasoline and diesel while they are less expensive to maintain. Moreover, it will decline further as Europe seeks to produce its batteries rather than import them from China (which accounts for 54% of sales today but will fall to only one-third in 2040, that’s a long road for EVs to be extended). Especially as a second life market for used batteries is emerging, which will allow them to be sold at lower costs in the years to come. So let’s ask the question again in this zero-emission plan: what plans you have for your next EV?
Environmental consequences by batteries, electricity, and pollution
BloombergNEF also estimates the impact of the development of EVs. The demand for lithium-ion batteries in cars is expected to grow from 200 GWh in 2020 to more than 1.7 TWh in 2040 which is considered to be a high amount of energy as a result of more charging EV cars. The price of kWh at $ 176, already divided by 10 since 2011, could reach $ 62 in 2030. Demand for oil will also be affected, falling from 23.8 to 18 billion barrels in 20 years. Solar panels and wind turbines.
On the contrary, the consumption of electricity dedicated to electric vehicles (utilities and buses included) will increase sharply. From 74 TWh in 2019, it would increase to 2,333 TWh in 2040, but would only increase overall production by 6.8%. Far from the threat of overload and cuts presented by some detractors. Here again, the disparities will be more or less strong depending on the country. Production should therefore increase by 14% in Germany and 11% in the United States.
Finally, the decline in pollution is not as rapid as one thinks. Due to the growth in sales of fuel vehicles, the peak will be reached in 2030. The report even expects a return to the level of 2018 only in 2040. It also specifies that the increase in shared mobility would participate in the stagnation of sales. From 5% currently, the share of ridesharing, taxis / VTC, or car-sharing trips would jump to 19%.
In conclusion, BNEF compares to other studies of its kind. She would be the most optimistic in the face of oil companies’ estimates. BP or OPEC reports target 300 units in 2040, that of Exxon 150 million.