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According To The Newest Electric Vehicle Predictions, The window For Moving The World’s Road Emissions To Carbon Neutrality By 2050 Is “Rapidly Closing”!
Sales of electric cars are expected to more than treble by 2025, but governments and automakers must work significantly harder to eliminate emissions from road transport by mid-century.
Analysts consider electric vehicles a spectacular success story, as they project sales of plug-in passenger cars to reach 20.6 million in 2025, well above the estimate of 14 million just one year ago, owing to their rapid uptake in China.
Regardless of advances, it takes time to replace nearly 1.2 billion on-road passenger cars with internal combustion engines. If no new rules or regulations are introduced, only a little over two-thirds of the worldwide fleet will be zero-emissions by 2050. Heavier commercial vehicles are expected to go a long way, with only 29 percent of the fleet expected to be decarbonized by 2050.
If passenger vehicle mileage and fleet size were only 11% lower than predicted for 2050, the world would save 2.25 gigatons of cumulative Carbon dioxide emissions and put less strain on battery supply chains.
The global sales of internal combustion engine cars peaked in 2017 and are currently declining due to increased customer interest in electric cars. In 2024, the worldwide fleet of combustion road vehicles will begin to decline, and by 2025, deliveries will have decreased by around 19% from their peak.
Instead, electric vehicles of all varieties are already displacing 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, and are expected to displace about 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025. Some anticipate a peak in gasoline demand in 2026, as well as a peak in total oil demand from road transportation in 2027.
The penetration of electric vehicles has also curbed the increase in transportation emissions from the level reached in the first year of the epidemic in 2020. However, due to additional emissions from the power plants that supply the fleet with electricity, the percentage of Carbon dioxide emitted is expected to rise for 2 years after oil demand peaks.
In a scenario that predicts how transportation will evolve if the sector is left to market forces and economic trends, France, Germany, China, and the United Kingdom are close to completely phasing out combustion car sales by 2038. The United States, Australia, and Japan will have to catch up, while Southeast Asia, India, and the rest of the world will have to catch up much more.
Authorities should execute a number of regulations, according to the study, to move forward toward a net-zero emission pathway. Authorities should set a phase-out date for new combustion vehicle sales no later than 2035 across all segments. Standards for fuel economy and battery recycling should be tightened, and policymakers should consider transferring some subsidies to promote the development of charging networks.
“Without new regulations in those nations, the net-zero trajectory for global road transport will remain out of reach,” the analysts conclude. Unless EV adoption improves, “air quality in urban areas is already notably different across wealthy and growing markets, and this gap will widen further.”
Because of severe pricing pressures, the point at which battery pack prices will fall below $95 per kilowatt-hour — a widely quoted benchmark at which battery prices are comparable with internal combustion — is now less certain.
“If raw material prices continue to rise, this might push the timescale back a few years, pushing most markets beyond 2024,” the analysts write. However, they do not believe that increased battery costs would deter EV adoption in the near future. “Some of the same things that are driving up battery cost of raw materials — war, inflation, economic friction — are simultaneously driving up the price of gasoline and diesel, which is driving up consumer interest in electric vehicles.”